Still No Signs of Releif

Hi,
Things are almost same and nothing has improved so far. Global scenario is dicey and no clicker news so far in domestic front to move the Nifty up. Now for the downfall I'll keep posting my lvls. Down trend is still intact despite a quick move by nifty yesterday (I see it as just a technical pull back and no resumption in the main trend which was or say is up). As long as our Index stay below 4300 we can get further targets of 4050-4080.

Oh well about the 23.6% retracement I think it is itself taking its last breather. Since it is out in a big way through ET, I hope it'll not work this time (huh thtz strange logic from my side). Ok honestly we got a shadow on 23.6% retracement which breached it quite well but as per my new studies the game is over. Nifty is moving quite well in a well mannered downfall following some different rules of the game this time(will tell you only lvls this time) and if it moves further in the same trend which I wish will hold should give us near 4000 lvls this time. BTW yesterdays low is definitely a big problem for the downside lvls. once taken out it will be Eureka!!!!

Hope you loved reading it.
Happy Trading.

Finally Reversals Everywhere....

Hi,
So far most of us are waiting for the confirmations whether the current downtrend is actually a kind of retracement or reversal. Yesterday I read an article http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/Investors-Guide/Nifty-Can-the-tough-get-going/articleshow/4685600.cms?curpg=1 by ET which gave arguments of DMA and Fibs Retracement martix by bloomberg for the Nifty support which coincided with my 23.6% retracement posts earlier. Now surprising thing is that this time 23.6% retracement is most likely to break as our exchanges are linked with global indices.

Earlier in my dow jones related post I've given 500 points range as a benchmark for accumulating pattern for Dow which moved it in the same fashion exactly for 4 times starting from 7500, it has moved in four waves of 500 points each and finally coming down yesterday by breaking 8500. Also it failed to make range high of 9000 which was beleived to be a major resistance. Now its subjective to say that dow has broken its 500 points range and its a reversal, but yes range breakout can be seen as first sign of reversals, finally time will tell that it was a deeper correction or reversal.

Back home Nifty also seems to breaking out. As on Monday it failed to stay above 4300 our benchmark lvl for upmove and closed to the crucial levels of 4230's which is indicating that this time it is going to breakout.



It might be too early to say that Nifty is heading for break down as some are likely to be looking for budget which is expected to hit market by 3rd of July but still kind of volume, patterns and global indices are showing signs of topping out. Remember in last post I was waiting for the signs from Dow for concluding to have a call for retracement or reversal. So we've seen this weeks starting with dows cracking and Nifty hangind out at crucial 4230 lvls. Now if it breaks this time decisively (you know wht decisively means :) ) we can very well see sub 4K lvls soon.

Hope you loved reading it.
Happy Trading.

Nifty:Retracement or Reversal....

Hi,
Game is still on between bulls and bears. Still can't decisively say that these are just retracements or reversal signs. But yes in short run we had an intermediate bear run from 4700 to 4200 approx means 500 points rally. This may turn to further weakness below 4200 if broken but on weekend it managed to stay above 4300 crucial mark indicating bulls have something for the next week.

(PS: basically what I mean by support n resistance is that you get wick/shadow or body bounce of 10 min candle from your lvls, not all the time u get lvls exact but if you are lucky enough to get then always go heavily for it as I do....this is the first test of support/resistance calculated by any method second test is that if support broken it should act as resistance on the respective time frame) hey btw please add your observation too in comments, will be glad to hear that coz i love experimenting and may be i can add something to your methods....so what r u waiting for make it a two way process...

Ok going by last post we have 2 swings from 4300 support of 50 and 70 points each. But nifty couldn't hold 4300 long and breached the support to test next support of 4230. See charts 4300 support acting as a resistance when broken. I loved trading in this range. Honestly most dramatic move was on last hours of Friday. It breached 4230 but couldn't extend further losses and later in the last hour we get a body bounce from exactly 4230 lvls which broke 4300 on upside and also managed to close above it. Now sometimes these are the crucial swings for a day trader like me as it is hard to decide if support/resistance is taken out or not. But if u can observe the charts closely then u can see that once a complete 10 min. candle leaves crucial lvls(i'm talking about support n resistance lvls be it fibs, pivots, moving avg or any other) then most likely it will trend in the direction of candle. Its not exactly some thumb rule but just an observation :) use it at your own discretion. There are many methods to avoid whipsaws like filters but I would like to keep things as simple as possible.



Interpretating above charts if Nifty successfully holds 4390 and reverts back then this time we can head southwards and can break recent lows. I'm just experementing with lvls on both side but yes if it goes in this order its a sort of reversal for sure.

Nifty Retracements

Here we go once again. Everytime when candles around 23.6 retracement people doubt this time its going to break down. My say is that even if we get one more daily candle in upper direction we may see a new high!!! Everytime its V shape recovery from these fibs lvls. Lets see how long can you hold Mr 23.6 (ha ha)


Hope you loved Reading it.
Happy Trading.

Nifty: Retracement or Reversal continued....

Hi,
Interesting Nifty is giving frantic moves in June too. So in the last post 4300 lvl was being eyed by me and we did retraced to a low of 4332!!. Downfall was imminent but such a fury was a rare moment of delight specially if you are prepared for shorting.



Now Nifty has duped many with such moves earlier too. So continuing this Retracement or Reversal thread further(btw a retracement is a profit booking percentage before moving further up and reversal is all you know i.e discontinuation of previous trend say for long or intermediate term.).

Sooo here we go. Today of 18th June watching market would going to be very interesting. I'm not jumping into any conclusions (anyway why I need to). A pull back is well expected and pullback got to be in order 4390 - 4410 - 4450. 4460 Being the maximum pullback and current falling should resume if we go in ideal step by step breaking down.

Now I know things never go as expected falling is clearly on the cards so traders can pull market further down which can be a possible scenario so 4300 is last resort and if taken out we can well se 4230 as a place to stop and reverse.

Bullish Scenario: I'm not ruling out my 20% retracement rule which constantly proved to be best buy since this rally started just check out past charts for the performance of this rule. Bulls may take sub 4300 lvls to use buy on dips and we can see a fabulous pullback. Remember Dow is too at its crucial support of 8500. Now Dow did managed to breakout 8500 lvls and managed to stay just on boundry line last night. So we are on the verge of breaking out or resuming to uptrend (50-50 chances for both).

Anyways logic says that we must pull back above 4400 and see how market reacts further as last hopes of bulls i.e budget will keep bulls busy as I said in last post and who know bulls will be waiting in the bushes to attack bears anytime......

Hope you loved reading it.
Happy Trading.

Nifty: Retracement or Reversal

Hi,
Its been days since I last posted. So once again Nifty formed a new high and again it is heading for some 20 - 23% odd retracements.

Now around 4500-4700 is a quite expected zone for correction for nifty as per most of traders(as if I knew most of traders....just kidding), reason being stocks valuation being too high. One more reason is that most of the big events internally and externally are over. Budget being one of the hopes for bulls which is keeping them busy but besides that I don't think there is any reason to buy at such high valuations until and unless we can see some confirmation from the side of quarterly results.
So if its just retracement then we must buy near 23% fibs retracement if budgets are anything to go by.

Now talking about second possibility there are signs on charts about the reversals(yeah I knew earlier signs have failed). Interestingly this time fibs retracements or waves are moving down in a pattern which confirms reversals. So if we consider the second scenario that its a reversal or minor correction then Nifty should not breach 4535 to 4550 on upside and should continue making lower highs. For an intermediate term it must continue this correction atleast till 4300. Breaking further will validate the bigger correction of this bull rally.

Hoped you loved reading it.
Happy Trading.