Hi,
So far most of us are waiting for the confirmations whether the current downtrend is actually a kind of retracement or reversal. Yesterday I read an article http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/Investors-Guide/Nifty-Can-the-tough-get-going/articleshow/4685600.cms?curpg=1 by ET which gave arguments of DMA and Fibs Retracement martix by bloomberg for the Nifty support which coincided with my 23.6% retracement posts earlier. Now surprising thing is that this time 23.6% retracement is most likely to break as our exchanges are linked with global indices.
Earlier in my dow jones related post I've given 500 points range as a benchmark for accumulating pattern for Dow which moved it in the same fashion exactly for 4 times starting from 7500, it has moved in four waves of 500 points each and finally coming down yesterday by breaking 8500. Also it failed to make range high of 9000 which was beleived to be a major resistance. Now its subjective to say that dow has broken its 500 points range and its a reversal, but yes range breakout can be seen as first sign of reversals, finally time will tell that it was a deeper correction or reversal.
Back home Nifty also seems to breaking out. As on Monday it failed to stay above 4300 our benchmark lvl for upmove and closed to the crucial levels of 4230's which is indicating that this time it is going to breakout.
It might be too early to say that Nifty is heading for break down as some are likely to be looking for budget which is expected to hit market by 3rd of July but still kind of volume, patterns and global indices are showing signs of topping out. Remember in last post I was waiting for the signs from Dow for concluding to have a call for retracement or reversal. So we've seen this weeks starting with dows cracking and Nifty hangind out at crucial 4230 lvls. Now if it breaks this time decisively (you know wht decisively means :) ) we can very well see sub 4K lvls soon.
Hope you loved reading it.
Happy Trading.
So far most of us are waiting for the confirmations whether the current downtrend is actually a kind of retracement or reversal. Yesterday I read an article http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Features/Investors-Guide/Nifty-Can-the-tough-get-going/articleshow/4685600.cms?curpg=1 by ET which gave arguments of DMA and Fibs Retracement martix by bloomberg for the Nifty support which coincided with my 23.6% retracement posts earlier. Now surprising thing is that this time 23.6% retracement is most likely to break as our exchanges are linked with global indices.
Earlier in my dow jones related post I've given 500 points range as a benchmark for accumulating pattern for Dow which moved it in the same fashion exactly for 4 times starting from 7500, it has moved in four waves of 500 points each and finally coming down yesterday by breaking 8500. Also it failed to make range high of 9000 which was beleived to be a major resistance. Now its subjective to say that dow has broken its 500 points range and its a reversal, but yes range breakout can be seen as first sign of reversals, finally time will tell that it was a deeper correction or reversal.
Back home Nifty also seems to breaking out. As on Monday it failed to stay above 4300 our benchmark lvl for upmove and closed to the crucial levels of 4230's which is indicating that this time it is going to breakout.
It might be too early to say that Nifty is heading for break down as some are likely to be looking for budget which is expected to hit market by 3rd of July but still kind of volume, patterns and global indices are showing signs of topping out. Remember in last post I was waiting for the signs from Dow for concluding to have a call for retracement or reversal. So we've seen this weeks starting with dows cracking and Nifty hangind out at crucial 4230 lvls. Now if it breaks this time decisively (you know wht decisively means :) ) we can very well see sub 4K lvls soon.
Hope you loved reading it.
Happy Trading.
1 comment:
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