F&O Picks: 31st March

Hi,

Some FNO Picks for 1st April (Fools Day). But picks are not to fool some one :)
One more thing my picks must be used in conjunction with OI readings intraday, i.e additions and unwinding of OI must be watched intraday, or if you are positional player at least confirm OI readings at EOD.

Auto stocks are doing exceptionally well as I mentioned earlier in Mondays post due to PE expansions.

Apollo Tyres:



Positions are slowly building up in the last two days in OI and with a continuation of OI building the stock can spike up in coming days. Longs can be initiated @70 with 69 as Stop Loss. Targets can be anywhere above 80.


ASHOKLEY:

Ashokleyland has a huge buildup of 56% in OI with a 3% move in price. at the peak of stock price entry is a bit risky but if price and O.I continues to rise tomorrow which is more likely than we may see a good upside in the scrip.

ESCORTS

Escorts though not a FnO stock, but as Auto sector is on a rise and stock has given a stopping volume Long positions can be initiated above 151 for a blasting move SL should be 145.

PFC

A Nice short opportunity is there in Power Finance. Good addition of OI has built up of Short Nature spot is @ 258 and Future at 2 rs premium 260. Shorts can be initiated if spot breaks 258.


Hope you loved reading it.
Happy Trading!!

And Weakness Continues

Hi,
And Market weakness continued with FII selling for the second day to the tune of 683 crores.
FIIs sold 13.66 lacs of Nifty and Nifty Open interest (compounded 3 months) increased by 3 lacs suggesting that Retail players are taking Long positions to the tune of 16.6 lacs.



FIIs were Net seller too in Index option segment and buildups in Calls in the box above clearly shows that shorts are building in the market.


Daily Charts of Nifty again showing significant short buildup and volume and MACD giving a clear cut sell signal and move below 5200 in coming days will confirm in down leg.


Review of My FNO stocks given so far:

BajajHindustan though exited on the yesterday itself but clearly said that any addition to the open interest will be bullish in nature and my decoding confirmed by stock falling a little bit with decrease in open interest (see futures OI table below). A cut of .75% in Open interest suggest that Long positions are on hold for the time being, unless we see a green day longs should be avoided and keep an eye on open interest as addition can give a decent 8-10% move upside.



Polaris

Polaris added 6.5% in open interest with price touching 164 Rs 10 Rs made so far with no hiccups. Unless we don't see a major unwinding keep shorts intact.

RECLTD

RecLtd surprised today with addition in open interest and a call coming from India Infoline to go long @ 253 for target 251. Call came when addition was seen at 1.5% in open interest and intra OI was at one point was around 6%, but at End of Day OI was net 1%+ so doesn't give much conviction to go long in this scrip.


Educomp:

Educomp had a nice buildup but today 2.75% short covering in open interest was seen, and it was actually expected as huge buildups like 15-20% next days mostly results in covering (A perfect example was Tata Motors recently) but on charts Educomp is still weak and can be shorted with increase in OI.


Hope you liked it.
Happy Trading!!

Long Unwinding Day!!

Hi,
As expected its was an unwinding day for longs. Addition in 5400 Put confirmed the short buildup. Unwinding in Nifty Futures was 2%, FIIs were Net sellers in Index Futures to the tune of 467 crores or 9.5 lacs of Nifty and O.I in Nifty declined by 5 lacs indicating that retailers are going Long. (Sorry for wrong data of FIIs yesterday corrected on [31st March]) Buildup suggest that we may find support near 5240 - 5220.

Most of the todays Pick were received well, Nifty clearly breaching 5280 and Polaris giving almost 4% intraday but BajajHind as expected was risky trade and was exited with a nominal loss of 1 Rs but still .17% shares in open interest and I'm still counting all additions in this series as bullish signal so keep an eye on the stock as it may rise whenever Nifty moves northward. REC trade possibility is very much possible as unwinding was seen. Usually in unwinding scenario one has to wait for a rise to short as participants who are already Long will look to offload there. Still nice trade possibilities are possible for REC.

EDUCOMP has an interesting Short Buildup as Futures adding 17% in Open Interest. Short build up has been very large suggesting that it can easily reach 700 in 1-2 days.




Hope to see some nice action in FNO n Nifty,
Till then
Happy Trading!!

Bajaj Hindustan: Sugar Stock with Tricky Buildup

Hi,
Just thought to give a short Intraday update of Bajaj Hindustan, yes its a risky business altogether
but OI buildup is a bit tricky to decode. As per my reading goes a short term Long buildup has taken place in Bajaj Hindustan see the data of last 3 days, heavy buildup indicating that previous shorts were turned around in Bajaj Hind and long are buildup so probably this time we may not see any short covering instead a continuous build up of OI.





If the Red support line holds for today we can get some good results, but again its tricky business to trade this stock.

Happy Trading!!!

F&O Picks: 30 March

Hi all,
Starting for the first time some ideas on F&O stocks, though I never thought of posting about stocks but decoding F&O action specially of stocks is quite tricky and interesting one as there's continuous unwinding and addition taking place in stocks in tandem with Market cues. Still I think some broad directional cues can be guessed with F&O data and combining it with market cues plus some technicals. Hope you'll like my this attempt and post views and suggestions.


So starting with REC first, there are many more stocks with interesting buildup but still starting with REC(don't know why). Interesting thing about REC is that it is getting a very early Long Unwinding, 60 lac OI was buildup in the stock in the initial opening of April Series but volumes have fallen significantly and early unwinding has taken place in last 2 days. With major PSU have tanked in previous sessions I hope a major unwinding can move this stocks to downward See the charts.

REC Ltd.




Good place to open short is at top of the channel line or at the break of downward channel line. CMP is not bad too for shorting.

Polaris:




With IT companies taking blow of Rupee/Dollar equation and clearly OI buildup is seen @ 174 levels with Price chart diverging with RSI, some short trades can be done at CMP SL should be 180 closing basis.


Will be updating more.....
Hope you liked it.

NIFTY: STRONG RALLY WITH WEAK INTERNALS

Hi,
Recent Nifty rally has been spectacular on the backdrop of FII buying, but surprisingly internals of market are quite week than ever. Clearly FII data in Nifty and Stock Futures are indicating strong inflow suggesting that inflows are in selected large cap stocks(specially Steel, Auto and Banks due to their PE expansions in Q3) but overall market breadth has been quite week.


AD has breached -8k, so broader markets are still underperforming with a wide margin ever. As the trend is up so either broader market catches up with Nifty in coming days in that case we must move above the red resistance line of -8k. (More about Advance/Decline line in the comments section)

In short term retest of 5280 is quite inevitable as per the current profile of Nifty. OI readings indicate that some shorts (as per my readings goes) have built up in options.



Clearly unwinding in 5300 call is quite pathetic and built up in 5300 and 5400 puts is quite heavy which is indicating that we may retest the Value Area Low of Nifty profile of 26 March. FII buying have been very marginal netting 220 cr in comparison to 238 and 538 crores in previous two sessions. Interestingly FIIs are net sellers of options in the last 5 sessions in Nifty.



In short term trend some scalping can be done in 5350-5280 range till further range develops.

Hope you loved reading it.