Likely WhipSlashes Ahead!!!

Hi,
So far Nifty is holding quite well and haven't retraced to the extent with the intentions with which 5400 put were bought. Bank Nifty is too giving support to this rally with Axis Bank declaring robust earnings to sustain near 5400 levels. So for a while we can witness whipslashes for nifty around 5400 levels and Bank Nifty at 10,000 levels. I will stress more on sustainability of Bank Nifty's 10K as it is giving good support to its peer and outcome of sustaining 10k will result in sustaining in Nifty above 5400.

An interesting article in today's ET here of Nifty cut pasting 5400, I appreciate that author is quite impressed by the undercurrent and has given some targets of Nifty above 5400 and icici above 900. Quite gettable but only if above mentioned conditions met. Whipslash level for ICICIBank is now 900-905. So watch out for this levels and hold tight to your positions.

Hope you liked it!!!

ICICIBANK SHORTS TRIGGERED TODAY

Hi,

ICICIBank shorts triggered for one more time as the scrip clearly struggling to sustain levels above 900. Spot opened today at 914 and finally settled 890. Target for shorts is 850 for the time being and if new Nifty top which is in place holds for this month and witness profit booking we can see good amount of profit booking in this counter to all the way to 800 and more.

Hope you liked it!!!

RESILIENT NIFTY: AIMING 5400 AGAIN

Hi,

Today's Nifty move was amazing considering the circumstances we were in globally last night. It surprised the spectators through its resilience as it didn't fell in line with its peers in the opening trade. While all the major Index were down in U.S from 2.5-3%, Nifty's Gap Down opening of just some 30 odd points and that too got recovered without hiccups. Even Fiis were net seller overnight to the tune of 1458 crores. Nifty's closing trade too was full of action and thrill as positive news flow from the European Banks fueled rally and closing the trade above 5300 mark.

Now looking through Nifty Futures charts it is giving indications that 5360 is quite achievable and above 5360 volume will play important role.

ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank completed the first target of 840 today as mentioned in the earlier post. Only a closing below 840 will trigger further downward journey. Shorts for ICICI bank are closed as of now. Will see further when it gets weak.

Hope you liked it.

Payoff Time: ICICIBank Hit by Events

Hi,

Hectic coverage of ICICIBank in the last one month in this blog came to climax finally at the end of this month. Clearly upside was mentioned here on 14th June post http://niftyswings.blogspot.com/2010/06/shorting-opportunity-in-icicibank.html. Stock was so weak that it didn't picked up any momentum when Nifty moved up from 5200 to 5380 and ICICI struggled to sustain 900 levels.

Seems like stars of ICICIBank were not good for this month. First it got hit by the rumors of U.S Law Suits but recovered thereafter (couldn't covered this that day as I read the article after some days) and then on 22nd morning Price targets were cut for ICICIBank by major investment banks like Goldman and JP Morgan. And yes we are finally 46 Rs down from the 900 levels. Currently stock is clearly struggling at 856 level and below 840 we can hope for 800 levels to finally emerge.

Hope you liked it!!!

Initiating Some Long Calls

Hi,
Initiating some long stock picks which can gain momentum in the coming week.

Bata India: Though the scrip is quite slow in consolidating but every time it breaks its trading range with good volumes and momentum. Target Price of the scrip is 300-320 and if gains momentum, target can be achieved in this expiry.



Praj Industry: Praj Industry is gone through its consolidation through symmetrical triangle and set to break out from the range. Target Price of this break out above 82 is 88-90 Rs and can be acheived within 7-10 days.




Hope you liked it!!!

ICICIBANK: Headline of Today for Wild Swings

Hi,
And yesss, scrip made headline for the mid-day review of bourses today. Check it out:

Capital Market

R.K. Global

Check out past few posts about ICICI Bank for the detailed notes I've made earlier.
Meanwhile Nifty is off from the days low and made a new high for the day ICICIBank is still struggling and so far haven't touched its days high and looking still weak.

Hope you liked it.

ICICIBANK INTRA UPDATE

Hi,
Index correlation is quite strong with this scrip. Earlier too it bounced back from 840 levels in line with Index on last short call of ICICIBank and the history repeated itself today too. Meanwhile expiry is expected to be above 5200 as per O.I data. Lets see if we can get below 800 levels after expiry, till then scrip is holding quite well with Nifty.

Hope you liked it!!!

ICICIBANK: WOLF WAVE TGT 840

Hi,
Opportunity for shorts in ICICI Bank.



Hope you liked it!!!

Shorting Opportunity in ICICIBANK

Hi,
Just rushing through ICICI Bank volume profile chart on the go. ICICI trading at attractive levlels of around 860 right now. Now looking at the volume profile and combining at O.I data, upside in ICICI looks capped @ 880 to maximum 900 and hence giving a chance to execute shorts as well as bearish strategies.


Though Nifty being in a clear uptrend so it is advisable to short ICICI bank in 2-3 legs in this coming weeks till the price action decodes itself in the range of 850-900. Currently one can buy and hold 860 put which is trading @23-25 Rs. Futures as usual in this series is still trading at discount though discount has shrinked, but volume is still not in favour of bulls.

Second strategy, a conservative one can also be executed if Nifty at all witness a sparking move above 5200 and ICICI moving above 900. Strategy is to short 1 lot of ICICI Bank Futures @ CMP and buy 2 lots of 920 call of current series which is barely trading at 1 Rs. This strategy gives a lot of room to play on both the sides and has a good earning potential.

Hope you liked it.

Market Stats: June 07

Hi,

Nifty took support at 5000 level, but Fiis chose to unwind their Longs position in Nifty. Last two sessions of buying 1920 was exited to the tune of 1665 crores. Now against the Fiis selling of 33 lacs of Nifty Open interest increased by 11.3 lacs, means Retailers were long and some Long FII holding is still there in Nifty.

Speaking of Nifty Intra, Open interest of current series increased by around 9.5% intra, but by the end of the day Net addition was 4% only, indicating that element of uncertainty is still there.


Review of Stock Calls:

Idea: Buying volumes are still holding the stock above 54 levels, so Longs are still open for the target of 58+ with 53.5 SL on closing basis.

Balrampur Chini: Stock has given down as mentioned earlier, and further shorts will be initiated on the break of 78. Today gave nice 2.5% intra moves.

Icici Bank: Short call in ICICI bank is still there, today it consolidated in 835-845 range, further crack will widen below 830 which is important support.

Earlier Long Calls

Torrent Power: Stock has given some nice moves today. Its been continuously recommended since 19th of May. Today it has given some good spike today and is successfully moving in the channel. Check out Chart.


BGR Energy: BGR Energy has been successfully maintained its upper end and is holding out well in the Jittery times. Some profit booking is not bad at this level. Stock is constantly adding O.I without much fuss. A breakout will be above 660 level and stock can be re picked at 640 and below if it gives a chance.

Hindalco: Though its in risky category but its staying at one of the major support of 140 below which it can give another crack. But as Nifty is holding it can be picked up from here.

Hope you liked it!!!

IDEA A SAFE PICK

Hi,
Idea again got picked up with volumes, as Nifty is rising with increase in O.I of around 8%, Idea can be safely picked up from here for 58+ target. Longs in Nifty can also be initiated for the target of 5080-5100 as builtup in Nifty is totally on Long side.




Hope you liked it!!!

Intraday Update: Finally Balrampur Chini Cracked

Hi,

Much awaited cracking of balrampur chini happened today with stock clearly cracking 2.5%. Crack will widen if it breaches important support of 78 which is its lower side of consolidation range. To confirm cracking there is an addition in open interest of about some 2% with crack in price.

ICICI Bank: Icici is yet to crack, weakness as mentioned earlier, is already there. A break down will happen from 830 level which is its important support.

Hope you liked it.

Review of Stock Picks

Hi,
Reviewing the week for some stock which I pick for short entry on Friday.

ICICI BANK: This stock has shown some interesting spot-future relation. Since the stock got picked up on 2nd June at around 830 levels on spot it is continuously trading on a deep discount on Futures. It has maintained an average 12 points discount in comparison to Spot. Just check out Spot Future chart of ICICI Bank on Friday:

Check out contract and underlying high low on friday we get a huge gap of highs at 854(future) vs 869 (spot). Clearly giving reverse arbitrage and some good shorting opportunity.

In Futures as I mentioned in previous post O.I of 1crore was built up on short side.

Clearly from 1st of June small amount of shorts are building up with an average rate of 2.5lacs shares daily. Volumes at spot continued to be lackluster, will be interesting when it tanks.

Balrampur Chini: Balrampur chini did picked out with the start of the session and closed out above its previous consolidation range of 81-78(thanks to the index), but clearly vloumes and indicators are showing weakness and its very hard to stay up in this range.

Now interesting thing is that long unwinding was seen in this stock in spite of stock closing in green. I've mentioned the scenario of long unwinding earlier too, so past two sessions 2.4 and 8.7 lacs of shares were reduced in open interest, will be interesting to see how built up pans out in coming days as its start of this O.I series and quite difficult to gauge the built up, but once builtup gets decoded this stocks gives good momentum and wild swings, so watch out for this stock.

Hope you liked it.

Stock Pick: June 04

Hi,
I'm expecting some profit booking at the end of the week so some short calls are in my list:

ICICI Bank: Stock is clearly is out of buying interest and avg. rollover price stands at around 850. With 863 as stop loss trade can be done for 830 and below targets. Check out the chart. Built up of O.I of around 1 crore shares are totally on short side.




Balrampur Chini: Stock has been range-bound in last 3-4 sessions within 78-81 range and O.I is clearly indicating that longs are unwinded in the meantime. A break from this trading range can give targets of 74 and below keeping SL of range high of 81.

Hope you liked it.

Stock Picks: June 03

Hi,
Picking up some stocks which are witnessing some good buying interest....

Stock#1: IDEA CELLULAR: Stock has shown long rollovers @ 49 levels, so a decent stop loss should be 49 on closing basis. Yesterday stock has added up 10 lacs shares grossly coupled with good buying in spot. Also my modified atr indicator also pointing out buy call(where green line is a long term buy call) on the stock.



Stock #2 Hindalco: Though any significant action is due on this stock and its still trading below its long rollover price of around 148, spot is 143 right now and on charts its giving some accumulation readings, so seems like a value buy with SL 140.


Earlier Pick of BGR Energy is doing great and Torrent Power can spike up any day.

Hope you liked it!!

Calls Review: Power Sector Picks

Hi,
As mentioned in the 19th May Post Power Sector Picks, recommended 3 stocks: Torrent Power, BGR Energy and Suzlon. Barring Suzlon, Torrent Power holded quite well and still consolidating in the channel and BGR Energy has given a breakout recently and closed higher today despite of Nifty closing in Red.

BGR Energy: Clearly the stock was consolidating in the narrow range so far and has picked up with some volume. Going further Price/Volume action will be interesting to watch.


Torrent Power: Almost same kind of story with Torrent Power i.e consolidating on low volumes, just waiting for volume spike in this counter.



Suzlon: This is the stock which didn't performed probably FIIs preferred to sell index based stock, but still suzlon can be a dark horse in long run.

Hope you liked it!!

NIFTY INTRA UPDATE: 21 MAY

 

NIFTY reversing from 61.8% lvl can give 4800 tgt in coming days. Speaking of Intra HNS pattern is in formation, Shorted at the retest of the trendline.

 

NIFTY INTRA TRADE: MAY 21

Uploading Nifty Intra Possible Trade for today, comments in charts…

Power Sector: Stocks to watch in Turbulent TImes

Hi,
Just thought to post some potential sectoral pick. Recent turbulent time has always opportunity locked somewhere. And power sector is looking awesome. Will post some detailed picks after market but power stocks like Torrent Power, Bgr Energy and others are holding nicely and expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Suzlon can also moves if we go by the power analogy, though its a wind power company but still its standing at attractive junction @ 63 it looks awesome to pick currently its been in some long unwinding stage but still has potential to fire up.

Happy Stock Picking!!!

APTECHT: STOP LINES FOR INTRA

 

 

Aptecht trade is still on, just putting some stop lines for intra day trade.

APTECHT COMPUTERS: BOTTOM FISHING

Hi,

Time to bottom fish a stock which can give some good gains in the time span of 1-2 days, basically its a bottom fish. Targets are 150+ and stop loss on closing basis is 144 ( a tight one), instead buying right now one can buy before closing.

Hope you liked it.

STOCK PICKS: 13 MAY

 

Hi, updating some charts which are my favourite long picks:

Hope you liked it!!

ESCORTS: NEAR ITS HOURLY BREAKOUT

 

ESCORTS: A very important level for it, 188.5 closing will open a new range for it. I just love this stock.

 

STOCK CALLS: MAY 10

Hi,
One Long call for IBREALEST as earlier posted this stock got some good buying interest.
target are 166+ hopefully intra.




One Short Call.

LITL: Earlier SL got hit of 59.5 but still short on this stock coz of pathetic volume.



Hope you liked it.

LITL: BREKADOWN CONTINUES

Hi,
Attaching chart of LITL, can short from here with SL 59.5.


Lets see how far we can plunge downside.

Market Stats: May 05

Hi,

So we broke important support yesterday. Weakness was clear in the background on charts as well as on FIIs money flow, and the anomaly on short on Index and long on stocks which everybody including me was following, was broken as stocks and index swinged downward with more than 100 points swing in Nifty Intra. FIIs sold 14.7 lacs of Nifty and open interest increased by around 16 lacs, clearly Retailers as well as FIIs were in sync this time.

Earlier days Gap of Nifty at 5250 levels remained open which indicates the rampant bearishness on the index. Clearly everybody including market experts were confused with the negative co-relation between index and stocks, but what can one do if charts of Index were bearish and at the same time stocks were giving wild swings. Clearly that's the charm of the market everybody wants to make quick buck no matter co-relation works or not and I was too not an exception, so got some stop losses hit on individual stock calls yesterday.

As we've broken out important support yesterday and there's literally no put builtup on downside that we can call support so we can this time go below 5000 in coming days unless any significant amount of put builtup shows up. Downside supports are:

5111 161% retracement
4970 262% retracement



One more important support is placed at 5030 at the TL. will be interesting to see if TL holds or not.

Review of Stock Calls of Yesterday:
Apart from IndiaBull real estate where price declined with fall in open interest indicating short builtup, other stocks tried to stay firm but finally long unwinding is seen.


Apollo Tyres: I was expecting a bounce from the current levels but as Nifty cracked 5200 stock broke out too. Open Interest cut yesterday was 4.1% with stock plunging by 3.1 % indicating clearly that Longs were unwinded.

India Bulls: A small built up of just .3% in open interest built up with 5% cut in stock, still indicating that market is not in a hurry to short this stock, but additions can go on as Index clashes.

HDIL: Same story with 2.3% cut in open interest stock plunged to 4.1%, Longs of a day before yesterday were unwinded but not fully thats fishy, so again hopes of Reality sector got buried with Nifty.

Bombay Dyeing: One of the few interesting stock where the quantum of fall is always restricted to mostly 3%, fell yesterday to 1.6% and is now very near to crucial 560 base.

Escorts: That's the only stock which closed positive .7% at 178.75 and didn't hit positional stops of 174/170 but still exited from all stocks, will take new position above 180. Looking at this stock I some time wonder that this stock must get some place in Nifty, quite a strong stock on charts indeed.

Hope you liked it.

Market Stats: May 04

Hi,
As I've been continuously pointing about FIIs flow, Nifty seems to be waiting for FIIs money to move up. Yesterday FIIs sold 19 lacs of Nifty and Nifty combined O.I increased to grossly 11 lacs. For the current series I'm assuming that all the open interest is built on short side till some major shakeup happens on and above 5250-70 levels. Clearly market is short on Index and Earnings are keeping stocks in buzz.


One gap is yet to be filled hopefully in this week as 5200 is holding so far with impressive 73 lacs shares of O.I in 5200 put. But without any inflow, probability of getting past 5300 is quite low. On upside there is 63 lacs shares builtup of O.I which at 5300 call should surpass 5200 put if FIIs continue to trade in the same trend.

Stock Picks.

Some individual stock which are looking good are:

IndiaBull Real Estate: Stats and chart already mentioned, has successfully bounced backed from the shake off, and is expected to go past 180 in coming days.

Apollo Tyres: Looking good at current levels and spike from here is expected as yesterday it has shown some support and positive RSI divergence.

Bombay Dyeing: A nice buy above 580, target for the coming days is 600+.

HDIL: Yes I'm very optimistic for this stock, once it forms a good base above 264 or any Wide range bar above these levels can push this stocks to 280-300 levels.

ESCORTS: Same view as earlier, hold this stocks unless it breaks down 174/170 on closing basis.

Hope you liked it.

NIFTY Intra: Pathetic Volume

Hi,
Posting Nifty Intra Chart


Clearly volumes have gone for a toss and Nifty seems to be struggling just to stay above 5200.
A breakdown from this consolidation can give sub 5200 levels today itself.


HDIL: well stepping into reality sector stock specially HDIL is a bit risky but still I'm looking into 261% level which is coincidentally 261.8 for HDIL, If some volume strength is seen around these levels it would turn out to be amazing buy. Any WRB on the upside is a buy but don't short at this level.


Hope you liked it.

Reality Sector - Time to Accumulat

Hi,

Seriously the sector is looking promising as compared to other sectors as far as valuations are concerned. Individual stocks of Real Estates are showing signs of Accumulation and could be a fast runner whenever Nifty bounces back from 5200/5100 levels, that's for sure. Overall there's nothing wrong with sector, as per me its just a shake off and now its best time to have a re look at stocks like HDIL and DLF.


On Charts, BSE Reality is showing signs of a pullback, last two candle are quite bullish in Nature, and interesting part is that HDIL haven't moved at all and is at multi month low. HDIL has been a hot shot pick for FIIs and going by the fundamentals of real estate companies, FIIs must be giving a thought to pick and accumulate these stocks in the so called shakeups like IBRealestate.

For this morning Nifty seems to be in pressure on the backdrop of Euro zone crisis, levels of 5200 will be interesting to watch.

Hope you liked it.

CALLS REVIEW

Hi,
Reviewing my earlier writeups.

ESCORTS:

Though stock has broken out of Ascending triangle, but volumes confirmation lacked yesterday, also it broke the RSI trend line, but as far as it holds 178 or 176 to be on more conservative side some good range expansion can be seen in coming days. New buying above 50 RSI would be safe to take long position.

IndiaBulls Real Estate:

IBREALEST gave awesome move yesterday around 7% intra. It has become now one of my favorite pick among the Real Estate pack. On daily chart it has shown some god reversal signs and also it has broken its falling channel. Breaking past 180 levels would be interesting to see.

NIFTY:

As mentioned last time volumes were lack luster as FIIs shunned from buying Nifty and same fashion continued yesterday, FIIs sold to the tune of 4 crores in Index Future. Though we can't jump into conclusion for shorting further, but one thing is clear without FIIs support our charts will be pathetic like this. On RSI as mentioned earlier, that once we reach 5270-80 zone RSI will be again overbought (last time it was over bought on 22nd of April, which is the reference peak for the earlier fall and a falling trend line started exactly from there.) Sort of same thing has happened this time also as we hit 74 reading this time and currently in the falling trendline of RSI, will be interesting to see how far we can hold this falling trendline in this stretch.

Hope you liked it.

Market Stats: 29 April

Hi,
Finally we have seen some strength coming at expiry day as Nifty managed to hold 5200 as well as 5250 and A/D chart got support at double bottom as expected and said yesterday.



So clearly broader market is holding its bullish position and it will be interesting to see the breakout from the falling wedge.

On Index front Fiis were net sellers yesterday. Fiis sold 4 lacs of Nifty and open interest increased by 2 lacs.

Clearly on charts of Nifty Futures too volumes were lack luster as they are yet to get confirmation from Fiis side. Now on the upside 5270-5280 are the levels to watch as RSI will be in the overbought position at these levels after a long time and price action at these levels are crucial to watch. Any weakness will give bears to short. So just watch out.

ESCORTS


Just a chart to trade with interesting formation. Escorts is one of my favorite stock as it gives nice swings, so far it's moving in ascending triangle formation and can give breakout as it's almost at its apex. Would love to trade this stock for 10-12 Rs target on both side with no hiccups.

Hope you liked it.

Stock to Watch: India Bulls RealEstate

Hi,
Indiabulls Real estate just caught my eye as it has bounced back from yesterdays shakeout very positively. Currently it is consolidating in 158 rs range and a breakout from here can give 166 and above targets in 2-3 days.


So just watch out.

Market Stats April 29: Bulls are still Accumulating

Hi,
Finally we are on expiry day, some nice show in range expansion happened already on the down side, but stats and volumes still indicating that bulls are accumulating on dips. Last day I expected a nice swing in banking sector. Bank Nifty and Axis bank did broke but volumes are indicating that the interest and bias is bullish on earnings expectations.





A/D chart has stalled at double bottom level and pattern formation as per me is bullish in nature, but everything will clear once earnings season completely pans out.

Axis Bank



Axis bank didn't gave the kind of swing as expected, clearly Axis bank is one of the strongest stock in Bank Nifty and I guess that's the same reason that people are not selling it and it hold out yesterday with just 2% cut.

Nifty Expiry



Nifty managed to hold 5200 yesterday, but possibility is still there to take it out today, on the upside 5245 continues to hold upside resistance and is a important level to watch out.

Hope you liked it.