Hi friends,
If you are wondering why our markets are moving insanely, or if you are a typical technical analyst who hang only n only charts with strict and inflexible rules like if Nifty is returning from its historical resistance or above 3100 lvls can in no way pull back and retest them again, or who are quite rigid on their all sorts of DMA and moving averages etc. After all our Nifty Daily Charts speaks so. Or if you are a hardcore fundamental analyst who bank on all PEs and ratios and Quarterly and Yearly Reports will in no way expecting any kind of bounce and have gone short on Sectors like Infra whose balance sheet are pathetic and cash striven.
So whats my point??
As saying goes past performance - Historical Performance are not indicative of Future Performance.
So you need to have open mind. Whats missing in this game is that we are seriously ignoring Events and one of the most important and hevy weight decider in Stock Markets "Sentiments". Earlier I've explained that inspite of poor performance only and only events and hopes are driving market. Well I'm no expert in guessing events but yes you can atleast anticipate it. For example U.S news of bankruptcy of their auto majors like General Motors and Chryslar are one of the major news. Now earlier bankruptcy of financial institutions like Lehman, AIG and other has created havoc so why no such havoc this time. Its probably(as per me it is) coz people have taken a systematic bankruptcy plans of Obama positively. So you got to interpretate things in right perspective and use it with Technical Analysis tools.
This I call a Proactive approach. Yesterday when market closed one of the major 3050 resistance levels i went long coz its of significance that market has something which holded it from slipping from last hours. I mean there has to be something which let traders to not book profit on this day like earlier. So here you get your first clue that something big is cooking, or in plain words there is some news which is discounted by smart traders. So I kept my postitions open for the days which is a worth taking risk and it may reward as the day opens up.
So Early Morning News which are driving today are Japanese Index rising 3% in early morning trade. To quote an extract from ET how sentiments make or break the market -
"The US market opened sharply lower on Wednesday after a payrolls firm reported higher than expected job losses in the US private sector in March amid the prolonged recession.
But US stocks raced higher as the manufacturing index for March turned out to be largely in line with expectations and up from February."
So enjoy this ride and Now as U.S has entered in a safe zone for a while now which is the biggest issue for the world my analysis tells that the range for the month will get shifted to 3000 - 3250 levels unless and untill some major shaky events rocks the market. Also about Q4 earnings will be grim but I hope market will take it normally in sync with stabelising U.S market conditions.
Hope you loved reading it.
And if you are tracking world markets please please and please do share your thoughts as it will help me a lot.
If you are wondering why our markets are moving insanely, or if you are a typical technical analyst who hang only n only charts with strict and inflexible rules like if Nifty is returning from its historical resistance or above 3100 lvls can in no way pull back and retest them again, or who are quite rigid on their all sorts of DMA and moving averages etc. After all our Nifty Daily Charts speaks so. Or if you are a hardcore fundamental analyst who bank on all PEs and ratios and Quarterly and Yearly Reports will in no way expecting any kind of bounce and have gone short on Sectors like Infra whose balance sheet are pathetic and cash striven.
So whats my point??
As saying goes past performance - Historical Performance are not indicative of Future Performance.
So you need to have open mind. Whats missing in this game is that we are seriously ignoring Events and one of the most important and hevy weight decider in Stock Markets "Sentiments". Earlier I've explained that inspite of poor performance only and only events and hopes are driving market. Well I'm no expert in guessing events but yes you can atleast anticipate it. For example U.S news of bankruptcy of their auto majors like General Motors and Chryslar are one of the major news. Now earlier bankruptcy of financial institutions like Lehman, AIG and other has created havoc so why no such havoc this time. Its probably(as per me it is) coz people have taken a systematic bankruptcy plans of Obama positively. So you got to interpretate things in right perspective and use it with Technical Analysis tools.
This I call a Proactive approach. Yesterday when market closed one of the major 3050 resistance levels i went long coz its of significance that market has something which holded it from slipping from last hours. I mean there has to be something which let traders to not book profit on this day like earlier. So here you get your first clue that something big is cooking, or in plain words there is some news which is discounted by smart traders. So I kept my postitions open for the days which is a worth taking risk and it may reward as the day opens up.
So Early Morning News which are driving today are Japanese Index rising 3% in early morning trade. To quote an extract from ET how sentiments make or break the market -
"The US market opened sharply lower on Wednesday after a payrolls firm reported higher than expected job losses in the US private sector in March amid the prolonged recession.
But US stocks raced higher as the manufacturing index for March turned out to be largely in line with expectations and up from February."
So enjoy this ride and Now as U.S has entered in a safe zone for a while now which is the biggest issue for the world my analysis tells that the range for the month will get shifted to 3000 - 3250 levels unless and untill some major shaky events rocks the market. Also about Q4 earnings will be grim but I hope market will take it normally in sync with stabelising U.S market conditions.
Hope you loved reading it.
And if you are tracking world markets please please and please do share your thoughts as it will help me a lot.
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