Market Stats: 29 April

Hi,
Finally we have seen some strength coming at expiry day as Nifty managed to hold 5200 as well as 5250 and A/D chart got support at double bottom as expected and said yesterday.



So clearly broader market is holding its bullish position and it will be interesting to see the breakout from the falling wedge.

On Index front Fiis were net sellers yesterday. Fiis sold 4 lacs of Nifty and open interest increased by 2 lacs.

Clearly on charts of Nifty Futures too volumes were lack luster as they are yet to get confirmation from Fiis side. Now on the upside 5270-5280 are the levels to watch as RSI will be in the overbought position at these levels after a long time and price action at these levels are crucial to watch. Any weakness will give bears to short. So just watch out.

ESCORTS


Just a chart to trade with interesting formation. Escorts is one of my favorite stock as it gives nice swings, so far it's moving in ascending triangle formation and can give breakout as it's almost at its apex. Would love to trade this stock for 10-12 Rs target on both side with no hiccups.

Hope you liked it.

Stock to Watch: India Bulls RealEstate

Hi,
Indiabulls Real estate just caught my eye as it has bounced back from yesterdays shakeout very positively. Currently it is consolidating in 158 rs range and a breakout from here can give 166 and above targets in 2-3 days.


So just watch out.

Market Stats April 29: Bulls are still Accumulating

Hi,
Finally we are on expiry day, some nice show in range expansion happened already on the down side, but stats and volumes still indicating that bulls are accumulating on dips. Last day I expected a nice swing in banking sector. Bank Nifty and Axis bank did broke but volumes are indicating that the interest and bias is bullish on earnings expectations.





A/D chart has stalled at double bottom level and pattern formation as per me is bullish in nature, but everything will clear once earnings season completely pans out.

Axis Bank



Axis bank didn't gave the kind of swing as expected, clearly Axis bank is one of the strongest stock in Bank Nifty and I guess that's the same reason that people are not selling it and it hold out yesterday with just 2% cut.

Nifty Expiry



Nifty managed to hold 5200 yesterday, but possibility is still there to take it out today, on the upside 5245 continues to hold upside resistance and is a important level to watch out.

Hope you liked it.

Intra update: Axis Bank

Hi, a directional trade can be taken on the breakout of the consolidation of Axis Bank. Most likely on the downside.



Will be updating Axis bank....

Market Stats April 28: Expiry Fest

Hi,
Posting after a short gap. April Expiry is going to be like a festival as moves are clearly visible on cards mostly on short side. As Nifty hovered at 5300 for quite some times on the earnings back drop as mentioned earlier, I was watching the money flow and the developments of the Q4 which are still going on. Weakness on Index as well as on broader market can be clearly seen.

Attaching some charts and stats which are indicating weakness...


FII Money Flow:

Talking about the Index clearly FIIs were exiting from the Index, In the last 10 sessions Fiis were Net sellers to the tune of 4137 crores, plus add yesterday's figure of 202 crores taking the death toll to 4300 crores.

A/D Line


Ad chart which has become an interesting indicator to see now a days has now formed a lower top and resting near 8k again and possibly can break this 8k barrier today, so clearly showing that on broader market weakness is still there unlike nifty where we've seen some stability.

On Option chain Nifty is giving a mixed signal as there is some unwinding in 5300 call and on 5300 put there's a builtup of 76 lac shares and on 5400 96 lacs shares, so breaking up 5300 will be interesting to see.


Shorting Candidates

As per me Banking Index is more poised for short today in comparison to Nifty.
Attaching chart of Bank Nifty where is a clear weakness and it's a nice idea to short Nifty at current levels.

BANK NIFTY


Bank Nifty traded in a very narrow range yesterday which could give a chance for shorters earn today.


AXIS BANK

Alternatively Axis bank can be shorted today as well, on charts its looking very strong but on Futures there's an unwinding is going on in Axis bank, interestingly April Futures are trading at
roughly 8 points discounts as compared to spot which is at 1280 and May Futures is trading at 17 points discount clearly indicating weakness.

Lets see how expiry pans outs today.

Hope you liked it.

Market Stats: April 20

Hi,
Finally Interest rate buzz is over, market responded positively but on Index we are yet to make a decent moves.



Clearly last times Gap gave a resistance and in order to move up we need some consecutive closing above 5245 levels in coming days.

Interestingly FIIs sold 430 crores and 160 crores in FnO and Cash segment respectively so clearly a bit of caution for some days. Individual stocks are making good moves on the backdrop of earning seasons.

A quick pick:

Pentaloon Retail.
Comments on charts itself.



Pick 2 DLF cant post the chart but Break out is above 330.

Hope you liked it!!!

Market Stats: April 15

Hi,
Inspite of a positive gap up opening Nifty failed to hold upper levels as expected and taken out all three gaps in a single go. To be precise 3 points gap still exist in Nifty futures but overall Nifty has filled all targets in a single days, thereby showing clearly the rising concerns of 20 April policy announcement. On charts Three Lower tops are formed which could act as crucial points in the coming days.



Next level to watch out for the downside is 5245 which is a major swing point for the Nifty Futures. Volumes with which Nifty Futures have fallen down were impressive.

Interestingly FIIs sold 17 lacs of Nifty today and Open Interest increased by the tune of 2 lacs which keeps the hopes of bulls going that 5200 will hold on downside. In Options chain 5300 call and put has seen some nice action.


Open interest unwinded by 5.8 lacs in 5300 put and at the same time impressive buildup is seen in 5300 call of 13 lacs, clearly 5300 will be the next big resistance for the coming days.


Review of Todays Picks:

Clearly Nifty has out shined every call for the day. Bajaj Hindustan, Tata Steel and Jindal Steel though opened positively and held for a long time but couldn't bear the pressure created by the Nifty and closed in red. But against all odds Steel will continue to be a strong bet for longs as buyers are entering at lower levels in most of steel counters. Sugar pack is still in hope and can burst out any day as it still consolidating in the ascending triangle.

Hope you liked it.
Happy Trading.

Uncertain Times: Time to Fill 3 Gaps

Hi,
Nifty is so far flip-flopping in 100 points range, and as events are shaping up I hope 20 April and May 1st week will play a crucial role to give some direction. So far Fiis too are shuffling their positions in FnO segment and hedging their positions.


On Nifty Futures charts there are 3 gaps which are looking to get filled in the coming days, one gap is on upside which might fulfilled today, and two downside gaps are pending. Looking at the current structure I hope a nice play on futures is to short in 5370-80 range for the gap filling target.

Interesting Sugar Pack:
Sugar Pack again has made some decent moves recently and can be a nice play for 2-3 days.
Here are some interesting formations in two sugar pack stocks:

Bajaj Hind:




Stock is currently in Ascending triangle formation, a bit far from Apex but can break upside if takes out 140 with volumes. If fails we have a downside opportunity as well as we are on the verge of upper resistance line.

Balrampurchini



A fast paced W shaped recovery has been impressive, will be interesting to see if it can get past to its W on the upside keeping in mind the rallies in overall sugar pack.

Apart from Sugar, Steel will be a nice idea to go long as it has formed nice formations on Steel Index and individual stocks also Earnings estimates of Steel sector are also adding fuel to this rally.


Hope you liked it.

Market Stats: April 08 BULLS TRAP

Hi,
As I was expecting a bulls trap and clearly Nifty fell on High volumes. Besides Nifty there are other signs in the market which confirmed the topping out like most of the script out of nowhere are spiking up 7-15% in the last 2-3 days making a perfect bulls trap situation for retailers. Retailers positions in Nifty and Spot market also confirmed that they are going long irrespective of FII selling.



FII Stats:
Fiis sold 28 lacs of Nifty and open interest decreased by 3 lacs, again retailers are on the wrong foot. Option positions are building significantly in the market as FIIs were net buyer in options segment to the tune of 1766 crores.

Calls Review: Tough I haven't initiated any new positions in cash market as positions are skeptical so I booked profits in Ansal Infra @ 81 and Aptecht @ 182 and even shorted Aptech for the cool 7 Rs profit. In the coming days will be looking for the shorts in the weaker scripts.

Hope you liked it!!!

Closing Open Calls

Hi,
Today closing some of my open calls......

Aptecht: Bought around 167 and was holding (check earlier post) and fortunately rewarded by range expansion today. Now shorted @ 182 with SL 183 for double gains.

Ansal Infra: Holded from 73 lvls now around 81 booked. Can still hold as formation is good but conditions are a bit gloomy for me so booking.


Hope you liked it!!!

Market Stats: April 07

Hi,
Markets were choppy yesterday, opened with a positive note in starting and giving up gain in the later part of the day. Like yesterday at EOD Nifty Futures gave a kind of Spinning top structure with a long downside tail a kind of mix nature but mostly bearish.

FIIs were net sellers in Index Futures, they sold 2.5 lacs of nifty and Nifty O.I increased from the same amount indicating retailers are bullish. Continuing the previous fashion Fiis are consistently taking heavy positions in Index options to the tune of 1260 crores.



On charts nifty consolidated in the earlier range with low volumes now whether its a bull trap or not will be confirmed if nifty moves down this 100% retracement level.

Yesterdays Quick calls Review:

Polaris: shorts were covered @ 168 as it bounced back from the lows.

Apollo Tyres: Shorts were undertaken but stopped out at yesterdays high, interestingly the thing I was referring that Price was increasing with a decline in open interest, but yesterday all shorts were covered and stock rallied 10% with the increase of the open interest. Almost 50 lacs shares of short were covered and 53 lacs shares of fresh long were built up in single day. Quite amazing.

Network18: It did gave some 2 rs downside but covered intraday as shorts in any scrips were not working.

Idea: Telecom stocks were the flavour of the day. Idea gave a nice 7% intraday gains.

Bharti: Bharti tried to brake out late in the afternoon from its inverted Head and Shoulder pattern gave a nice swings but gave out gains and still hanging at the upper side of the neckline of inverted HnS. will be interesting to see today.


Hope you liked it.

Quick Calls Update: April 07

Hi,
Most of trades are going fine. I couldn't update SL for all the trades, SL should be previous days high in all the trades. Sesa Goa trade didn't triggred as opened positively and remained positive, rest stocks are in short mode for now.
Longs can be initiated in Bharti and Idea with SL previous days Low.

Happy Trading!!!

Quick Picks: 07 April

Hi,
Posting premarket probable trades.
All short trades:

APOLLO TYRES: SHORT CMP 73 for target 70 and below ( reason being continuous decline in open interest with rise in price as mentioned earlier).

POLARIS: Weak Script, got a covering with Nifty earlier, but shorts triggered yesterday, hope it will continue today too.

NETWORK18 & SESA GOA: Both the script topped out and can see some profit booking today.

These are last minutes calls so can't post much details, but review after market.

Hope you liket it!!!

Market Stats: April 06 (Interesting FIIs Positions)

Hi,
Nifty showed signed of topping out as volume in Nifty Futures are tepid. Spinning top formation at EOD candle confirmed this too. Target of 5380 that I was looking for and gave at 4th April in scenario of Nifty holding 5320 was completed today. We might see some downside retracement from 127% retracement levels.



FIIs positions are quite interesting in FNO segment and as per me its a bull trap.

FIIs bought 7 lacs of Nifty and Open Interest declined by 3 lacs(combined) suggesting retailers were short. FIIs were net buyers of Options in this series to the tune of 6000 crores which as per me are bearish in nature and can turn out to be a bull trap in coming days. As mentioned previously Options are at their Historically Low Volatility Levels and hence FIIs are taking Volatility based positions in Options segment.

In Optionchain 5400 call continuously adding O.I and stands at 68 lacs, Interestingly addition in 5300 put has gained pace and it might outdo the 5200 put in coming days. A very close near ATM put with increasing buildup with 5400 call supporting the resistance positions can be critical as 5300 put may be a support in disguise.

Hope you liked it!!!

Market Stats: April 05

Hi,

Nifty opened Gap up and its intra-low was a crucial level of 5322 which was a combined support of 78.6% retracement as well as Value Area High of previous days Market Profile (link) as mentioned in the previous market stats. So as 5320 was not broken Longs were initiated for the target of 5380 and we got intra high of 5370, though I also mentioned longs should be only initiated above 5350 but double support at 5320 prompted me to initiate longs.



Todays Stat:

FIIs were buyers in all the segments. Net buyer in Index Futures to the tune of 1310 cr.
Net buyers of options 1030 crores and Stocks Futures 282 crores.
FIIs bought 26 lacs of Nifty and Open interest grossly increased from 17 lacs means Retailers were short 9 lacs of Nifty.

Options chain is quite interesting today as there is fresh buildup of 21 lacs O.I in 5300 put ( A new support??). At the same time addition in 5400 call to the tune of 8 lacs taking the highest O.I in the call series to 61 lacs. In the down side 72 and 55 lacs of O.I buildup is there in 5200 and 5300 puts respectively. Fiis were aggressive buyers today so it will be interesting to see if 5400 resistance holds out or not in the coming sessions.


Hope you liked it.
Will update my picks in the mornings.
Waiting for your comments.....

Review of Quick Picks: 05 April

Hi,
Reviewing mornings trades, day was opened with a positive note and remained throughout bullish.

TULIP: TRADE DIDN'T TRIGGERED
As commented in morning first hours WRB will decide the direction of the trade. We did touched 963 in second bar but all the bars were WRB on bearish notes in the first hour so stayed away.




APTECHT: Aptecht opened with a Gap up which was not touched in the day, giving indication that we can see some more upmove in coming days. Target in my mind is 175+, it touched 174 intraday High, so my trade is still open.


ABAN: I guess everybody will be watching for Inverted Head n Shoulder in this scrip, It opened up with a gap up and ended consolidating but on a very low volume note (probably gap up killed the volume). Half a way on target. Hope to see some volume and upmove coming in tomorrow.




Ansal Infra: Moved throughout the day with some expansion and contraction, as its a positional play I hope it will reach steadily to 4-5 more Rs in the coming days with no hiccups as most of the infra stocks rallied today.



Brigade: Stock gave good upmove with Nice WRB and consolidated in the end. Stock can rally strongly again if moves again out of this rectangle. Stock gave 4 Rs Intra, not bad.....




Hope you liked it.

Quick Picks : 05 March

Hi,
As mentioned in the below post some nice trade is possible in Left Out stocks. Some random picks and trades are:

TULIP: BUY ABOVE 863 SL 853 (Things to watch is Wide range Bars in First Hour for longs)

APTECHT: BUY @ CMP 167 with SL 165

BATA INDIA: BUY WITH 234 as SL.

BRIGADE: BUY @ CMP with SL 135/133 ( CALL FOR 2-3 days.)

ABAN : Can give Inverted HnS breakout above 1200 with nice 50-60 points.

ANSAL INFRA: BUY and Hold ABOVE 73, 71 as SL, Positional Trade for target of 76 and above.

All the Best.
Happy Trading!!!

MARKET STATS AND POSSIBLE MOVES: 5 APRIL

Hi,
In the last trading session we see a market wide participation in the Nifty upmove which was missing in all previous rallies, almost all sectors rallied including hot favorite market stocks and shorts are closed and longs are created at the same time in many scrips.



Options reading clearly indicating that 5200 level is a major support and on the upper side @ 5400 heavy call written.




Longs should only be opened above 5350 that too if it sustains on hourly basis, one possible scenario can be Nifty opening around 5340 and tracing back all the way to 5288 where the yesterdays 'b' shaped profile is.

Clearly the action is in broader market and stocks which are left out can see some action while nifty keeps its current range as expected with ad line chart and the earlier post, so its time for broader market to catchup with Nifty. I'll be looking for small and midcap stocks that too intraday today as I still feel Nifty or Large caps should be avoided as concern of Interest rate are looming in the background.

FII stats are mixed in nature, in last session FIIs bought roughly 5 lacs of Nifty and open interest increased by 2.4 lacs. But the point to notice is that major turnover came from Options side where Net buyers to the tune of 1087 crores. In the past sessions FIIs were seen taking long positions with the options as volatility of Nifty at record low levels which may turn out into a nice directional move for the time being one should wait and watch carefully.

Hope you liked it.

SHORTS COVERED MARKET WIDE

Hi,
Interesting 1st April today as market wide shorts covered and strength is seen coming in most of the stocks with a healthy AD ratio.

Review of FNO picks.

ESCORTS

This stock was on fire today, as expected a spike in Auto related stocks Escorts was indeed a under performer for quite a few sessions and clearly showing accumulation pattern and the awaited spike came today giving 15% intra return.


Apollo tyres giving 3% intra and closing finally at 2%, OI reading intraday was a flip-flopping event first unwinding in O.I came @ 73 early morning and stock declined to 71 and OI again shot up to 60 lacs in the last 30 minutes but finally most of the contracts were unwinded at 73 again and OI finally closed at -3.8% showing lack of conviction in holding positions.



Ashok Leyland also giving 2% move after a huge buildup yesterday, seems like stock is peaked out in near term. PFC shorts didn't triggered today as it stayed up from the beginning.

Overall nice Intraday gains for today, will update market stats leter.

Hope you liked it!!!